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Oldham East By Election

 
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Clive55



Joined: 08 Dec 2006
Posts: 1336

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:50 pm    Post subject: Oldham East By Election Reply with quote

The coalition looks set to be humiliated in Oldham East even though Conservative Party supporters in the constituency have been told by canvasers to "Vote WEatkins to keep Labout out!"
I saw the idiot Watkins being interviewed on TV. What an utter fool! When told by the reporter that his party's part in the coalition was not going down well with the public he said "That's not what polotics is about. IT'S NOT ABOUT THE PUBLIC. It's not about popularity. It is about doing what is right!!!"
The fool will never make it in polotics.
I suppose he will go to his buddies in the Muslim Public Affairs Committee extremist pressure group to be consoled

Saw a great quote from David Aeronowitch in The Times about Clegg:
"Part of me has no great desire to give Mr Clegg advice that will help him. That’s the part that is still keeping close to the loo after reading his newspaper article on Alarm Clock Britain this week. If anyone can find a worse written, more cliché-ridden, more meaningless, more patronising, more tin-eared collection of absurd propositions paraded as common sense, then I will give them £50. You can go as far back in history as you like.

David Aaronovitch
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ruddlescat



Joined: 16 Sep 2010
Posts: 18010
Location: Near Chester

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry Clive I certainly wouldn't call the likely result a humiliation

This is a three way marginal and whoever wins is likely to have a small majority

I think Labour will win with a larger majority than last May but there are very peculiar circumstances in this particular seat and I don't think too much should be deduced from the result

I do agree that in the long term the Lib Dems will be slaughtered because of breaking their promises and it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories finished second tonight because I'm not convinced in the privacy of the ballot box many voters will engage in tactical voting

It's interesting that the local Labour party has virtually disowned their own candidate which has meant people have had to be brought in from miles away in order to canvass on behalf of the Labour candidate
It seems there is not much unity between the local and national Labour parties but they will still probably win
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Clive55



Joined: 08 Dec 2006
Posts: 1336

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Debbie Abrahams extends Labour's majority over the Lib Dems from just 103 votes at the general election last May to 3,558.
This was in spite of the Conserv ative Party vote collapsing as the Conservatives did not campaign locally & all the signals comming from David Cameron et al were that Coinservatives should back the Lib Dem guy to stop Labour.
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undiscovered



Joined: 15 Sep 2010
Posts: 650
Location: Peterborough

PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was more of a score draw, Labour did ok certainly better than the General Election, the Lib Dems did kind of down but not a disaster but the Tory's who were never expected to win did the worse. I think it was a case of LD voters voting Labour, Con voters voting LD and not really anyone voting cons.

Nothing really out of the ordinary, it was vital that Labour won otherwise Ed would have been embaryssed
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littlepieces



Joined: 10 Jan 2010
Posts: 1098
Location: Lowestoft

PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

undiscovered wrote:
It was more of a score draw, Labour did ok certainly better than the General Election, the Lib Dems did kind of down but not a disaster but the Tory's who were never expected to win did the worse. I think it was a case of LD voters voting Labour, Con voters voting LD and not really anyone voting cons.

Nothing really out of the ordinary, it was vital that Labour won otherwise Ed would have been embaryssed


I agree
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Clive55



Joined: 08 Dec 2006
Posts: 1336

PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

undiscovered wrote:
It was more of a score draw, Labour did ok certainly better than the General Election, the Lib Dems did kind of down but not a disaster but the Tory's who were never expected to win did the worse. I think it was a case of LD voters voting Labour, Con voters voting LD and not really anyone voting cons.

Nothing really out of the ordinary, it was vital that Labour won otherwise Ed would have been embaryssed

I have heard quite a few long standing Conservative Party people who were really peeved at how Cameron did the dirty on the Conservatives in Oldham East
At the general election the Conservatives came a very respectable third. It was a three way marginal. Cameron did a poo on his own party in order to save Nick Cleggs blushes.
The Labour majority increasing in just 6 months from just 100 votes to 3500.
Is that Watkins idiot going to try to bring a prosecution against Debbie Abrahams, too?
At least at the general election he came in a very good second
In this re run- caused by his own vendetta- he was thoroughly humiliated.
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ColinB
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Much as I was pleased to see the Tories trounced, I don't think we should read too much into this because it's quite common for an early by-election to give voters an opportunity to react to the resident party in government. Let's see what happens in 4 years - I bet the result is different, due in part to the fact that Cameron will have pulled a few rabbits out of the hat and started to woo voters - many of whom are stupid and have very short memories - in his party's favour.

That is if the rank-and-file LibDem members haven't stabbed Clegg in the back and pulled the rug from under the coalition (in which case, Cameron will have no option but to go back to the polls).

I know a few locally-active LibDems who are very, very angry at being allied with the Tories, so nothing would surprise me.
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Clive55



Joined: 08 Dec 2006
Posts: 1336

PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with you, Colin. Generally, Conservative support appears to be remaining fairly constant. It is the Liberal Democrat Party which is in serious trouble.
The Tory vote collapsed in Oldham because local Tories were urged to vote Lib Dem. So basicly we saw Tory votes saving the Lib dem prat from losing his deposit.
The Lib dem party is deeply divided between the rank & file & its leader & MPs. The party can't go on forever relying on Tory votes.
Opportunist idiots like Simon Hughes will never abandon Clegg & Cameron- (till they are down then he'll stick the knife in) but basicly the Lib Dems will remain without any real support.
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Clive55



Joined: 08 Dec 2006
Posts: 1336

PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Ed Milliband is foolish to appeal publicly to Lib Dems.
Lib Dem voters are already voting Labour- this is what happened in Oldham East.
The MPs will not join Labour & Labour would not be a better party for having such charechters as Simon Hughes in it, even if he were to defect (though he won't till faced with losing his seat)
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ColinB
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clive55 wrote:
Opportunist idiots like Simon Hughes will never abandon Clegg & Cameron- (till they are down then he'll stick the knife in) but basicly the Lib Dems will remain without any real support.


I think that'll happen sooner rather than later, to be honest. He'll club together with other co-conspirators as soon as Clegg shows real signs of weakness (basically when Cameron is able to command a greater share of the limelight) and then..........

Beware The Ides of March, Caesar!!!!!!!!!!!!

The funny thing is that the party is doomed with or without him as leader.
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Clive55



Joined: 08 Dec 2006
Posts: 1336

PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ColinB wrote:
Clive55 wrote:
Opportunist idiots like Simon Hughes will never abandon Clegg & Cameron- (till they are down then he'll stick the knife in) but basicly the Lib Dems will remain without any real support.


I think that'll happen sooner rather than later, to be honest. He'll club together with other co-conspirators as soon as Clegg shows real signs of weakness (basically when Cameron is able to command a greater share of the limelight) and then..........

Beware The Ides of March, Caesar!!!!!!!!!!!!

The funny thing is that the party is doomed with or without him as leader.

I agree. Funny thing is I recall arguing with self proclaimed left wingers who boasted they were too left wing for the Labour Party so they voted Lib Dem!
Now we see the Lib Dems as part of one of the most right wing governments in British history!

I heard on the radio a former colleague of Margaret Thatcher expressing his unease at this governments takking away of workers rights. When questioned he said that Thatcher wanted to thwart the power of the unions not take away workers rights. (Not sure the Miners would agree Embarassed )
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