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mark occomore
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 9955 Location: UK
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 8:59 am Post subject: Tories Leading |
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LONDON (Reuters) - The Conservatives enjoyed their strongest support for 15 years on Sunday with the latest opinion poll capping a bruising week for Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
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Brown had enjoyed a honeymoon period with voters during his first 100 days in office but his comfortable 11-point poll lead has now evaporated in the face of a policy onslaught by Conservative leader David Cameron.
Brown was pilloried in the press and by the opposition after deciding last weekend not to call a snap election two and half years early.
The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed the Conservatives on 43 per cent, seven points ahead of Labour on 36. The Liberal Democrats trailed in a distant third with 14 percent.
The Conservatives, trounced in the past three elections by Brown's predecessor Tony Blair, have seized the initiative with a string of popular tax-cutting policies.
In sharp contrast, Brown was widely derided for fuelling election fever only to back off when his comfortable opinion poll lead evaporated.
Brown's Chancellor Alistair Darling was then accused of stealing Conservative policies when he unveiled new inheritance tax cuts in his pre-budget report.
Cameron, under attack from right-wingers in his party until his fortunes were sharply reversed, renewed another line of attack on Sunday -- over the European Union.
"I think people are tired of being treated like fools by the government, whether over the decision to cancel the general election, the kind of con we saw in this week's pre-budget report or the fake arguments in defence of the European constitution," Cameron wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.
Brown, who replaced Blair as premier in June, is under strong pressure to give voters a referendum on the EU treaty. He is being urged to do so by the Conservatives, newspapers and some members of his own Labour Party.
Blair offered voters a referendum on the old EU constitution, rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005. But Brown argues the new treaty is far less ambitious.
Brown has said he had to be absolutely sure British national interests were safeguarded in negotiations on the treaty that are due to wrap up at an EU summit in Lisbon.
The treaty provides for a long-term EU president, a stronger foreign policy chief and a more democratic voting system.
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All the bitching wont help? They always taking policies off each other. True the honeymoon is over, unless a major crises to happen on main land britian. At least Gordon and Cameron gave there praises to our Rugby team. Hopefully he will do the same when we qualify for Euro 2008 football on Wednesday? |
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nod
Joined: 24 Dec 2006 Posts: 3558
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:47 am Post subject: |
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Who are these people they poll who seem to be convinced by a few sound bites to the media ?. Theses are career politicians who will say anything to get you to vote for them.
I am getting sick to death of news (R2, BBC etc) reporting this hyped up stuff as headlines, it's just the parties manipualting the media who have nothing else to report. |
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Toggy tea slurper Guest
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 10:49 am Post subject: |
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I agree with you nod, I hate the way the media whip up 'controversy' Fact is there is not going to be an election, it's about time the Tories got over themsleves
By the way I don't support labour, I don't support anyone, normally I don't vote and sh1te like this from the media is one reason why. |
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Barkingbiker
Joined: 11 Dec 2006 Posts: 2313 Location: Lincolnshire
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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Well if people cannot be bothered to utilize their democratic right to vote, they cannot moan about the government policies. This of course is a sign of our whole British society now, IMHO, like many aspects of todays society, use it or loose it!
BB _________________ Old Bikers Never Die, our leathers just get tighter! |
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firewirefred Guest
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:57 pm Post subject: |
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Barkingbiker wrote: | Well if people cannot be bothered to utilize their democratic right to vote, they cannot moan about the government policies. This of course is a sign of our whole British society now, IMHO, like many aspects of todays society, use it or loose it!
BB |
How I agree with you, BB. How right you are. The big problem is that we have rather too many people in the UK who complain like hell about absolutely everything, and then on the other hand say stupid things like: "I'm not interested in politics". What they're so stupid to understand is that politics is about life and the way we run things in relation to each other. If we don't take part, we don't deserve to have it.
And I don't give a toss about these silly polls either, Mark. The only polls worth taking any notice of are the real ones. |
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Barkingbiker
Joined: 11 Dec 2006 Posts: 2313 Location: Lincolnshire
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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Yes fred it does not matter which party you support, you should vote as it is a hard won right. As Joni Mitchell says, "you don't know what you've got till it's gone".
BB _________________ Old Bikers Never Die, our leathers just get tighter! |
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mark occomore
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 9955 Location: UK
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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firewirefred wrote: |
"I'm not interested in politics". What they're so stupid to understand is that politics is about life and the way we run things in relation to each other.
And I don't give a toss about these silly polls either, Mark. The only polls worth taking any notice of are the real ones. |
Good then you won't need to continue to discuss them on here.
You might not, but some other fellow posters may do. |
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gfloyd
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 4861 Location: Here, There, Everywhere.
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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firewirefred wrote: | Barkingbiker wrote: | Well if people cannot be bothered to utilize their democratic right to vote, they cannot moan about the government policies. This of course is a sign of our whole British society now, IMHO, like many aspects of todays society, use it or loose it!
BB |
How I agree with you, BB. How right you are. The big problem is that we have rather too many people in the UK who complain like hell about absolutely everything, and then on the other hand say stupid things like: "I'm not interested in politics". What they're so stupid to understand is that politics is about life and the way we run things in relation to each other. If we don't take part, we don't deserve to have it.
And I don't give a toss about these silly polls either, Mark. The only polls worth taking any notice of are the real ones. |
I agree with BB and fred that if you dont vote, you have no right to complain about the state of the country.
However the polls are a snapshot of the mood of the country and are certainly more scientific than other ways of guaging the mood of people. _________________ His name was ernie ........ and he drove the fastest milk cart in the west..... |
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nod
Joined: 24 Dec 2006 Posts: 3558
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Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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"However the polls are a snapshot of the mood of the country and are certainly more scientific than other ways of guaging the mood of people."
but still possibly wrong... |
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RockitRon
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 7646
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Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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... and a week, or two, is a long time in politics, and polls, to apraphrase the well known saying. Only a mere four weekends previously the media was full of the polls putting Gordon Brown's New Labour 11 points ahead.
Technically we do not need to have a General Election until May 2010, so they're all pointless anyway. _________________ Ron |
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mark occomore
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 9955 Location: UK
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Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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All the Blairs men and Women were wheeled out for the interviews. Former Lord Chancellor Lord Falconer has urged Mr Brown to outline his "vision for the future of the UK". I think he was worried about his pension. |
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iwarburton
Joined: 08 Dec 2006 Posts: 2133 Location: Northumberland
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Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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The polls have several times been wrong--general elections in 1970 and 1992 wrongly forecast a Labour victory and the polls of October 1974 grossly overestimated the Labour majority.
Why don't we stop spending money on all political polls other than elections themselves?
Ian. |
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gfloyd
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 4861 Location: Here, There, Everywhere.
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Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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iwarburton wrote: |
Why don't we stop spending money on all political polls other than elections themselves?
Ian. |
Well because its not your money that is being spent perhaps and its a free country so people can spend their money on what they choose.
The notion that public opinion should only be sampled once every 4 years is a bizarre one. Its like the Chinese communist party only meeting once every 5 years.
I'd rather have regular polling than rely on the (much more) unscientific loonies calling the Jeremy Vine show and purporting to represent what the public thinks. _________________ His name was ernie ........ and he drove the fastest milk cart in the west..... |
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firewirefred Guest
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Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 11:55 pm Post subject: |
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gfloyd wrote: | However the polls are a snapshot of the mood of the country and are certainly more scientific than other ways of guaging the mood of people. |
What a poll tells you is entirely dependent upon the questions asked and the way they're asked (as all good market researchers know). At least with a proper secret ballot, as per a general election, you can't make it any simpler than asking somebody to put an "X" in only one of the boxes.
That's why I said I don't think polls are worth a jot. |
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gfloyd
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 4861 Location: Here, There, Everywhere.
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Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:52 am Post subject: |
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This really is getting to be the anti-science/ math website.
So the question is "If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for?"
Are you denying there is a correlation bewtween the polls and actual vote results? If yes, then I'm sure you still believe in dropping women down wells to see whether they are witches or not _________________ His name was ernie ........ and he drove the fastest milk cart in the west..... |
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Behind Geddon's Wall
Joined: 11 Dec 2006 Posts: 1553 Location: Kingston Upon Hull/ The Cloud Factory
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Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:46 am Post subject: |
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There is only 1 poll that counts. _________________ Geddon
You simply mustn't blame yourself -- the days were perfect
And so were exactly what I was born to spoil
For I am the Rider to the World's End
Bound across the cinder causeway
From the furnace to the quarry
Through the fields of oil |
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RockitRon
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 7646
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Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:08 am Post subject: |
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Opinion polls are all very well, but the "who would you vote for" type seem to be conducted far too frequently and too much importance is attached to them. We've just seen that polls taken over the party conference season have shown an apparently huge swing in public sentiment, first one way then the other. It may be good for us to see our leading political figures squirming under the media heat thus generated but I cannot help but think that you can have too much of a good thing and that our and their attention should be focused on more serious matters.
Besides which, no-one ever asks me _________________ Ron |
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gfloyd
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 4861 Location: Here, There, Everywhere.
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Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:58 am Post subject: |
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Behind Geddon's Wall wrote: | There is only 1 poll that counts. |
A bit of a cliche, especially when the polls did for Ming. They are an inexact feedback mechanism but they do cause parties to change path. So they certainly do matter. _________________ His name was ernie ........ and he drove the fastest milk cart in the west..... |
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firewirefred Guest
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Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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gfloyd wrote: | Behind Geddon's Wall wrote: | There is only 1 poll that counts. |
A bit of a cliche, especially when the polls did for Ming. They are an inexact feedback mechanism but they do cause parties to change path. So they certainly do matter. |
The fact that Campbell's colleagues had a knee-jerk reaction to a poll shows how bad a state of affairs it all is. Meanwhile, there's only one poll that counts.... |
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gfloyd
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 4861 Location: Here, There, Everywhere.
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:08 am Post subject: |
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firewirefred wrote: |
The fact that Campbell's colleagues had a knee-jerk reaction to a poll shows how bad a state of affairs it all is. Meanwhile, there's only one poll that counts.... |
Well I hope thats consolation to Ming. I suspect not somehow. _________________ His name was ernie ........ and he drove the fastest milk cart in the west..... |
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firewirefred Guest
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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gfloyd wrote: | firewirefred wrote: |
The fact that Campbell's colleagues had a knee-jerk reaction to a poll shows how bad a state of affairs it all is. Meanwhile, there's only one poll that counts.... |
Well I hope thats consolation to Ming. I suspect not somehow. |
I don't think it will be either, but the situation that the party forced him into is nonetheless an indictment on the political climate in which they're operating - and why I think these "polls" are a nonsense to be ignored. |
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RockitRon
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 7646
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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When the dust has settled I think he'll find it something of a relief.
He never looked, or sounded, comfortable in the role, and probably only got the nod because of the failings of the other contenders at the time, not to mention those of Charles Kennedy. (Which is not to say that I approve of the way he has been forced to resign.)
He can go back to being a sage, and a relatively calm contributor to Question Time and other political discussion programmes. _________________ Ron |
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gfloyd
Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 4861 Location: Here, There, Everywhere.
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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firewirefred wrote: |
I don't think it will be either, but the situation that the party forced him into is nonetheless an indictment on the political climate in which they're operating - and why I think these "polls" are a nonsense to be ignored. |
No the polls have just confirmed what they knew in their hear of hearts anyway, namely this guy doesnt have what it takes to lead a political party. It wasnt his age that did for him, it was the fact that he acted about 10 years older than his real age!
Blaming the polls is like shooting the messenger: easier than dealing with an unpalatable truth. _________________ His name was ernie ........ and he drove the fastest milk cart in the west..... |
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